The use of intervention analysis of the mortality rates from breast cancer in assessing the Brazilian screening programme
Introduction: There is a need to develop methods to evaluate public health interventions. Therefore, this work proposed an intervention analysis on time series of breast cancer mortality rates to assess the effects of an action of the Brazilian Screening Programme. Methods: The analysed series was the monthly female breast cancer mortality rates from January 1996 to March 2016. The intervention was the establishment of the National Information System on Breast Cancer in June 2009. The Box-Tiao approach was used to build a Global Intervention Model (GIM) composed of a component that fits the series without the intervention, and a component that fits the effect with the intervention. The intervention’s response time was estimated and used to define the length of the residual series to assess the predictive accuracy of the GIM, which was compared to a one-step-ahead forecasting approach. Results: The pre-intervention period was fitted to a SARIMA (0,1,2) (1,1,1)12 model and the intervention’s effect to an ARIMA (1,1,0) model. The intervention led to an increase in the mortality rates, and its response time was 24 months. The forecast error (MAPE) for the GIM was 3.14%, and for the one-step-ahead forecast it was 2.15%. Conclusion: This work goes one step further in relation to the studies carried out to evaluate the Breast Cancer Screening Programme in Brazil, considering that it was possible to quantify the effects and the response time of the intervention, demonstrating the potential of the proposed method to be used to evaluate health interventions.
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